# Polymarket vs Kalshi on the 2026 midterms: who can trade, who settles and what the odds mean

By Pawnie (@pawnie_ on X). Web3. Published 2026-11-03. Canonical page: https://www.w3match.com/blog/polymarket-vs-kalshi-midterms-2026

Compare Kalshi, Polymarket US and Polymarket International before the 3 November midterms: access, legal status, what prices mean and when contracts pay.

On 3 November many people will see prediction market odds next to the vote count. CBS, CNN, Fox News, The Wall Street Journal and X have deals with Kalshi or Polymarket to show them during midterm coverage, and [the Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/reports/betting-on-democracy) puts trading on midterm markets above $1.4B this year.

A price on a TV graphic hides most of what matters: who can trade it, who decides the result and when a winning contract actually pays.

This guide explains those three things. It does not pick a winner. Checked on 2 November 2026.

## The short version

- **There are three products, not two.** Kalshi, Polymarket US and Polymarket International have different access rules and different ways of deciding results.
- **A price is not a forecast from one source.** It is the last deal between traders, shaped by fees, spreads and how long your money stays locked.
- **Election night is not settlement night.** Kalshi's chamber control contracts have a fallback date of 1 February 2027.
- **Legal status is still contested.** Kalshi and Polymarket US are federally regulated, while about 120 lawsuits across 28 states test how far that goes.

## Three products, not two

### Kalshi

- **Status:** a CFTC-regulated exchange, approved in 2020.
- **Account:** identity checks, with age and state rules.
- **Who decides:** Kalshi applies each contract's written terms. It says it does not call elections itself.
- **Referral note:** the [Kalshi offer](https://www.w3match.com/go/kalshi?from=%2Fblog%2Fpolymarket-vs-kalshi-midterms-2026) behind our link is for eligible US users only.

### Polymarket US

- **Status:** a CFTC-regulated exchange. Polymarket returned to the US by [buying a licensed exchange](https://mercuryo.io/explore/learn/prediction-markets-us-regulation-kalshi-polymarket) in 2025, after a 2022 settlement had pushed it out.
- **Account:** [NPR reports](https://www.npr.org/2026/10/27/nx-s1-6012304/polymarket-election-betting-surveillance) that users must give their real identity.
- **Who decides:** the exchange, using the sources listed in each contract's terms.
- **Hack note:** the October wallet drain hit the international site. [CNBC reported](https://www.w3match.com/blog/binance-hack-polymarket-hack-october-2026) that Polymarket US was not affected.

### Polymarket International

- **Status:** a separate site, which NPR describes as essentially unregulated. It uses crypto and can be traded anonymously.
- **Access:** [Polymarket's own list](https://help.polymarket.com/en/articles/13364163-geographic-restrictions) blocks 40 countries, including the US, UK, Germany, France, Netherlands and Brazil. Poland is close-only: you can view markets and close positions, but you cannot open new ones. Polymarket bans using a VPN to get around this.
- **Who decides:** [UMA's Optimistic Oracle](https://docs.polymarket.com/concepts/resolution). A proposer posts a bond and submits an outcome, anyone can challenge it, and a repeated dispute goes to a token holder vote.
- **Our link:** if your country is allowed, [Polymarket International is here](https://www.w3match.com/go/polymarket-international?from=%2Fblog%2Fpolymarket-vs-kalshi-midterms-2026). Check the list first.

## What a 69¢ price means

Each contract pays $1 if the stated event happens and $0 if it does not. On 30 October, [Oddschecker reported](https://www.oddschecker.com/us/insight/specials/politics/20261030-a-beginners-guide-to-prediction-markets-for-the-midterms) a Yes price of about 69¢ for Democrats winning the Senate on Kalshi.

The simple reading is a 69% chance. It is a useful shortcut, with three adjustments:

- **Fees.** Both main US venues charge on orders that fill immediately, and the fee is highest near 50¢. See [Kalshi's schedule](https://kalshi.com/fee-schedule) and [Polymarket's formula](https://docs.polymarket.com/trading/fees).
- **Spread.** The price you can actually buy at can differ from the one on screen, especially in small races.
- **Time.** Money in a position can stay committed for weeks. A trader may accept a lower return only if it pays soon.

A $1 payout is also not $1 of profit. Buying at 69¢ means risking 69¢ to make 31¢, before fees.

## When a contract actually pays

The event ending, the market resolving and money reaching you are separate moments.

**Kalshi, single races.** [Kalshi says](https://news.kalshi.com/p/kalshi-launches-transparency-features-2026-midterm-election-markets) election markets settle once at least four of eight news organisations call the race and none disagree. [Its terms](https://assets.kalshi.com/contract%5Fterms/SENATEPARTYNOM.pdf) name The New York Times, AP, Decision Desk HQ, CNN, Fox News, NBC, CBS and ABC. In a recount or legal challenge, the market stays open until the winner is sworn in.

**Kalshi, control of Congress.** House and Senate control [may settle early](https://news.kalshi.com/p/how-to-trade-on-elections) on a consensus of media calls. Otherwise House control follows the party of the Speaker on 1 February 2027, and Senate control follows the party of the president pro tempore on that date.

**Polymarket US.** The exchange is the source agency. In its [seat count contract](https://www.cftc.gov/filings/ptc/ptc0625267457.pdf) it can settle early on a consensus of named news sources, but words like "leading" or "likely" do not count. If results are disputed, the contract can stay open. Once the exchange determines the outcome, that decision is final. Other contracts have their own terms.

**Polymarket International.** Winning shares [redeem for $1](https://docs.polymarket.com/concepts/resolution) after the oracle process ends. A market can also resolve 50-50 in unusual cases, paying $0.50 per share. A proposal can be challenged during a two-hour window.

Expect some close races to take longer than one night. Recounts and ranked-choice counts can delay payouts on every platform.

## Is it legal?

It depends on who you are and what you trade.

Kalshi and Polymarket US answer to the CFTC, and the current administration supports them. CFR counts about 120 lawsuits across 28 states over whether federal law allows these contracts and overrides state gambling rules. The CFTC and the Justice Department have sued nine states to stop enforcement. The sharpest court splits so far concern sports contracts, but the same legal question sits behind election markets.

Outside the US, the answer comes from your own country's rules and each platform's restrictions. A US licence does not make a product available elsewhere.

## Should you trust the odds?

Treat them as one signal.

CFR cites research that election markets forecast well and resist manipulation better than critics expected. The Wall Street Journal [reported on 31 October](https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/prediction-markets-keep-whiffing-on-elections-will-they-miss-on-the-midterms-9809c8c9) that markets were caught out by supposed long shots in Brazil, Serbia and Wisconsin.

Insider trading is the other concern. Polymarket told NPR it has investigated dozens of election cases, and a source said at least two went to the CFTC. Kalshi said in July it had blocked dozens of campaign staffers, though one staffer told NPR they got around the block.

## Before you trade

1. Confirm which product you are on, and that you are allowed to use it.
2. Read the rules of that exact contract, including the source and the fallback date.
3. Check the executable price and spread, not only the headline number.
4. Ask how long your money could stay locked.
5. Size the position so that losing all of it is acceptable.

For a wider comparison, see [prediction markets compared](https://www.w3match.com/blog/best-prediction-markets-compared). For the money trail, read [who holds your funds in a prediction market](https://www.w3match.com/blog/prediction-markets-wallet-custody-resolution).

## FAQ

### Is Polymarket legal in the US?

Polymarket US is a CFTC-regulated exchange for eligible US users. The international site blocks the US. State level lawsuits over prediction markets are still running.

### What is the difference between Polymarket and Kalshi?

Kalshi is one regulated exchange. Polymarket runs a regulated US exchange and a separate international crypto site. On the international site, results go through the UMA oracle. On Kalshi and Polymarket US, the exchange applies written contract terms.

### When do midterm election markets pay out?

It depends on the contract. Single races on Kalshi can settle after four of eight media organisations call them. Chamber control can settle early or wait until 1 February 2027.

### Can I use Polymarket in Poland?

Polymarket lists Poland as close-only. You can view markets and close existing positions, but you cannot open new ones.

### Are prediction market odds accurate?

Sometimes very, sometimes not. Research cited by CFR is favourable, while recent upsets in Brazil, Serbia and Wisconsin show the limits.

## Sources

- [CFR: Betting on Democracy](https://www.cfr.org/reports/betting-on-democracy)
- [NPR: Polymarket has investigated dozens of election cases](https://www.npr.org/2026/10/27/nx-s1-6012304/polymarket-election-betting-surveillance)
- [Kalshi: how to trade the 2026 midterms](https://news.kalshi.com/p/how-to-trade-on-elections)
- [Kalshi: transparency features for midterm markets](https://news.kalshi.com/p/kalshi-launches-transparency-features-2026-midterm-election-markets)
- [Polymarket US: seat count contract filed with the CFTC](https://www.cftc.gov/filings/ptc/ptc0625267457.pdf)
- [Polymarket: resolution documentation](https://docs.polymarket.com/concepts/resolution)
- [Polymarket: geographic restrictions](https://help.polymarket.com/en/articles/13364163-geographic-restrictions)
- [Mercuryo: how regulation separates Kalshi and Polymarket](https://mercuryo.io/explore/learn/prediction-markets-us-regulation-kalshi-polymarket)

_Referral disclosure: the Kalshi and Polymarket International links marked in this article are referral links, and Pawnie may receive a reward if you sign up or use the platform. This is not a recommendation to trade or a forecast of any result. Event contracts can lose their full value, and availability depends on your location. Rules can change, so check the live contract terms. Information as of 2 November 2026._